Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 0.329195 0.373425 0.421426 0.477400 0.540893 0.610699 0.693299
2025-10-05 0.272875 0.333367 0.404017 0.492664 0.601001 0.729212 0.892656
2025-10-12 0.223517 0.291910 0.377241 0.491624 0.641144 0.830270 1.088209
2025-10-19 0.188183 0.261377 0.358439 0.496748 0.689173 0.948054 1.323979
2025-10-26 0.162968 0.239683 0.347346 0.509748 0.749201 1.090435 1.615849
2025-11-02 0.134643 0.208809 0.318509 0.492964 0.764456 1.172620 1.836368
2025-11-09 0.110348 0.179793 0.287658 0.467866 0.762806 1.228959 2.026757
2025-11-16 0.094094 0.160581 0.268706 0.457921 0.782641 1.320609 2.286783
2025-11-23 0.080567 0.143610 0.250651 0.446319 0.797433 1.405505 2.548376
2025-11-30 0.072882 0.135389 0.245958 0.456627 0.851057 1.563604 2.962156
2025-12-07 0.062606 0.120891 0.228027 0.440259 0.853785 1.631076 3.220239
2025-12-14 0.055241 0.110676 0.216368 0.433656 0.873456 1.732059 3.557275
2025-12-21 0.048380 0.100627 0.204012 0.424732 0.889119 1.831388 3.915701
2025-12-28 0.044812 0.096663 0.203042 0.438664 0.953478 2.038130 4.532395
2026-01-04 0.040305 0.090032 0.195652 0.438002 0.987077 2.186533 5.049835
2026-01-11 0.036820 0.085076 0.191072 0.442753 1.033384 2.369718 5.677714
2026-01-18 0.034259 0.081797 0.189671 0.454466 1.097475 2.602816 6.463161
2026-01-25 0.030183 0.074348 0.177719 0.439616 1.096628 2.685586 6.900016
2026-02-01 0.026192 0.066476 0.163615 0.417326 1.074052 2.712829 7.202889
2026-02-08 0.023484 0.061373 0.155430 0.408512 1.083991 2.822013 7.737944
2026-02-15 0.021027 0.056529 0.147173 0.398205 1.088404 2.917845 8.254618
2026-02-22 0.019782 0.054687 0.146319 0.407415 1.146669 3.164555 9.233770
2026-03-01 0.017611 0.049997 0.137288 0.392844 1.136913 3.225566 9.693333